EnergyOMNI's Perspectives｜Westwood: Insights on the Offshore Wind Industry for 2026

Edited by EnergyOMNI

UK-based energy consultancy Westwood has recently released its insights on the offshore wind industry for 2026, titled "Five Offshore Wind Themes to Watch in 2026." The offshore wind market slowed further in 2025, prompting a shift in behaviours. Government are adjusting its tendering policies. At the same time developers and the supply chain are exercising more discipline with their investments. Looking ahead to 2026, Westwood identifies five key themes:

1. Balancing industrial and energy policy

In 2026, governments will need to face the growing challenge of balancing rapid offshore wind deployment with maximising economic benefit for local industries. The dilemma of whether to focus on rapid project delivery or protecting (and growing) local suppliers is taking centre stage. How governments resolve this trade-off will influence investment decisions, project timelines, and the overall pace of offshore wind growth.

Recent discussions in Taiwan on the draft rules for offshore wind zonal development Round 3-3 also highlight the balancing act between industrial policy and energy strategy. Meeting the electricity demand arising from the expansion of the AI industry and advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes—particularly the growing demand for green power under net-zero emissions and environmental sustainability goals—means that renewable energy development is no longer solely an energy policy issue, but also a critical component of industrial development.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs estimates that green electricity demand will reach 40 billion kWh by 2030. The current draft sets the grid-connection timeline for Phase 3-3 between 2030 and 2031, with the aim of ensuring a timely and sufficient supply of green power. However, Taiwan's domestic wind power supply chain is concerned about the risk of supply chain disruption following the removal of the industrial relevance plan(local content) requirements. As a result, industry stakeholders are calling for a higher weighting for local industrial benefits under the ESG planning criteria, in order to strengthen developers' incentives to collaborate with domestic suppliers.

2. Developer and supplier Strategic shifts to capture more value

Developer strategies have shifted from growth at all costs to "value over volume". This has resulted in developers increasingly divesting stakes in projects and shifting to partnership structures to manage risk and capital exposure. Westwood expects divestments to continue in 2026 with some companies exiting the sector, while others look to secure value from more advanced projects (especially those with offtake agreements), or reduce exposure to higher cost / risk developments such as floating wind or projects in newer markets.

Other ways that developers may seek to capture more value is through the increased focus on service offerings. An example of this includes Orsted entering into a preferred supplier agreement to supply its Osonic technology to Luxcara. Currently, Luxcara is developing the 1.5 GW Waterekke and the 300 MW Waterkant offshore wind farms in Germany. Under the agreement, Orsted will also provide engineering, procurement, and construction consultancy services. Orsted's decision to license its low-noise monopile installation technology highlights a new opportunity: developers can generate additional revenue as a direct technology supplier.

At the same time, supply chain players are moving beyond traditional roles, potentially becoming equity stakeholders in projects. Ming Yang looks at opportunities outside China, including reported interest in ScotWind projects. These moves suggest a desire to be more directly involved in projects, but likely as a means to secure turbine orders and gain exposure to new markets rather than becoming a long-term operator. With developers increasingly selling down stakes, an opportunity is emerging for supply chain companies to step in as co-investors and take direct equity positions.

3. Supply chain more disciplined about projects

After four years of cost inflation, failed auctions and cancelled projects, the industry as a whole has shifted to a more selective and cautious approach. Developers are sharpening their geographic and financial focus, resulting in fewer projects reaching FID. The supply chain is responding in kind, pulling back from or pausing large-scale expansion.

With the US market stalled, APAC cooling, and European auction timetables slipping, suppliers increasingly prefer to concentrate on fewer, higher-certainty projects rather than spreading themselves thin. The result is a leaner, more disciplined supply chain that carefully allocates capital. For 2026, this creates a tighter, more competitive supply chain environment where only projects with strong policy backing, and clear revenue visibility will be able to secure supply chain commitment and move forward at pace.

4. Government adjusts financial support mechanism

There have been numerous failed offshore wind subsidy and lease auctions across the world in the past 18 months. The same challenges have been cited repeatedly: insufficient financial support from governments.

In markets where offshore wind has strong political support, governments have reintroduced the financial support mechanisms. The UK, for instance, has significantly increased the financial firepower available to its annual Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions, while the Netherlands and Denmark have moved away from the "zero-subsidy" approach and Japan introduced a price adjustment scheme for operators in round 4.

Wood Mackenzie has made similar observations. Following the tender 1.0 in early development with generous subsidies, and the subsequent tender 2.0 marked by reduced subsidies and a more market-oriented approach, many governments in recent years have introduced new tendering regimes, entering what can be described as a "Tender 3.0". One of the most significant shifts in this phase is the recalibration of financial support mechanisms.

Under the current draft framework, Taiwan's Round 3-3 will no longer adopt a zero-price bidding mechanism. Instead, the government will set a fixed minimum purchase price—not exceeding Taipower's avoidance cost—to purchase surplus green electricity beyond project-level CPPAs. This represents a notable breakthrough in the government's renewed provision of financial support mechanisms.

Westwood mentioned novelty that governments' increasing use of arm's-length state institutions to provide support to the industry. For instance, the UK has established GB Energy, which will act as developer in the future. South Korea has created a new bidding category for projects developed by public bodies. Taiwan has required its state power company to establish "Taiwan Smart Electricity & Energy Co.", demanding aggregators to stimulate demand for offshore wind PPAs. There is the creation of a PPA guarantee fund with Invest-NL in the Netherlands.

5. Investment and auction uptick

Despite the headwinds that the offshore wind sector has been facing, component spend in 2026 is forecast to be more than double 2025 levels (on a contract award year basis), making it the second highest year for global spending after 2023. Global EPCI capex spend in 2026 (based on awarded contract values) is expected to reach $52bn, led by China. Outside of China, the UK will lead spending, driven by contracts being finalised by projects awarded a CfD in Allocation Round 7 (AR7). Projects in Netherlands, Germany, Taiwan South Korea and Japan which have secured offtakes are also poised to be major contributors.

Lease awards in 2026 are expected to be 48GW. EnergyOMNI has compiled nearly 30 GW of offshore wind tender capacity across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and other regions.

Asia-Pacific:

• India cancelled its tender in August 2025 and has announced that a new tender will be held in February 2026.
• Australia postponed a tender originally scheduled for September 2025, which is now expected to take place in 2026.
• Japan is likely to conduct its Round 4 in 2026 and may also re-tender the 1.7 GW capacity withdrawn by Mitsubishi Corporation from the Round 1 ahead of the Round 4
• The Philippines is expected to hold its first offshore wind auction in 2026 through the fifth Green Energy Auction (GEA5).
• Taiwan's Round 3-3 is currently planned to be announced in Q1.
  
  

Europe:

• The results of France's AR10 auction are expected to be announced in 2026.
• Denmark launched tenders for three offshore wind sites in November 2025. For North Sea Central (capacity of at least 1 GW) and Hesselø (capacity of at least 0.8 GW), the bid submission deadlines are set for spring 2026.
• Germany is expected to hold auctions in 2026, although the auction volume has been reduced from 6 GW to 2.5–5 GW.
• Belgium postponed a 700 MW offshore wind auction originally scheduled for November 2025 to Q1 2026.
• The Netherlands plans to launch a new round of offshore wind tenders in September 2026 for the 1 GW IJmuiden Ver Gamma A site
  
  

Other Regions

• Canada launched an offshore wind tender in Nova Scotia in 2025, and several developers have recently entered the pre-qualification stage.
• Colombia held its first offshore wind auction in 2025, with the results expected to be announced in March.

Table: capacity awards expected in 2026