EnergyOMNI's Perspectives I UNDP Releases Assessment of the Technical Potential of Offshore Wind Energy in Vietnam

Edited by EnergyOMNI

At the end of August this year, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released the Assessment of Technical Potential for Offshore Wind Energy in Vietnam. In addition to Vietnam's authorities and agencies, the report was developed in collaboration with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and funded by the Norwegian Embassy in Vietnam.

Earlier this year, the Vietnamese government set offshore wind power targets of 6–17 GW in installed capacity by 2030–2035, and 139 GW by 2050. It also plans to have state-owned enterprises lead the country's first offshore wind pilot scheme. In August, Danish developer Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) announced that it had signed a joint offshore wind development agreement with PetroVietnam (PVN). UNDP's comprehensive study not only provides complete information on offshore wind development at the early stages but also serves as a resource for Vietnam's marine spatial planning, while offering valuable references for relevant ministries, local governments, and stakeholders.

UNDP initiated this project in 2023, supporting Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) and the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNHMA) in conducting detailed assessments of nearshore (within 6 nautical miles) and offshore wind energy potential, along with recommendations for the long-term development of the wind power industry. The project's specific objectives included:

1. To obtain a detailed wind and wind energy potential dataset with a 3-km resolution.
2. To evaluate temporal variations (monthly, seasonal, annual) in wind speed and wind energy at specific areas.
3. To calculate technical wind energy potential with consideration to territorial waters, seabed topography, marine planning, and priority areas for wind power development.
4. To assess meteorological and oceanographic disaster risks in the East Sea and coastal areas of Vietnam.
5. To propose solutions to enhance observation, modeling, and forecasting for short-term wind energy exploitation.

In 2022, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam released its Assessment of Solar, Wind, and Wave Energy Potential in Vietnam. Building on that data, UNDP refined the resolution from 9×9 km to 3×3 km. The report is based on 30 years (1991–2020) of simulated wind field data from 26 stations, seabed topography data, Vietnam's territorial sea information, and offshore buoy data, combining these inputs to produce its results.

The study found that for nearshore wind power, the areas with the highest wind energy density are located in the waters between Binh Dinh–Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan–Ca Mau. The largest nearshore wind energy potential is concentrated in the central Gulf of Tonkin and the waters between Ninh Thuan and Ba Ria–Vung Tau. Specifically, southern Vietnam holds a potential of 28.372 GW, followed by the south-central region with 25.899 GW.

For offshore wind power, Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) shows a total developable installed capacity potential of up to 1,068 GW, far exceeding the World Bank's 2022 estimate of 600 GW. The potential is mainly concentrated in the northern East Sea, the northern and central Gulf, and the waters between Ninh Thuan and Ba Ria–Vung Tau. Two factors explain the significant increase: first, this study considered a larger EEZ area (up to 322 km offshore), while the World Bank only considered areas within 200 km; second, the study identified a broader distribution of areas with average wind speeds above 7 m/s compared with the World Bank's findings.

It is worth noting that the offshore wind potential estimate does not include restricted or prohibited areas such as marine protected zones, dense shipping routes, tourism areas, or other exclusion zones. Therefore, the practically developable installed capacity would be lower.