EnergyOMNI's Perspectives｜Boston Consulting Group: Proposes 10 Key Performance Indicators for Achieving 120 GW of Offshore Wind in the North Sea by 2030

Edited by EnergyOMNI

On 26 January 2026, the North Sea Summit 2026 was held in Hamburg, Germany. Ten countries—Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, and the United Kingdom—signed the Hamburg Declaration at the summit, committing to invest €9.5 billion (approximately NT$355 billion). The declaration set the goal of reaching 120 GW of installed offshore wind capacity in the North Sea by 2030 and 300 GW by 2050, and of strengthening energy security and industrial competitiveness through cross-border and cross-national grid integration of offshore wind farms.

BCG：40-60 GW Gap to Reach 2030 Target

According to the analysis conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), to achieve the targets set for 2030, an average addition of offshore wind of 17.2 GW p.a. will be required for the years 2026 to 2030. This exceeds the current speed of expansion, which has been stagnant at 2.4 GW p.a. capacity additions over the last five years, by a factor of seven. Another 9.0 GW p.a. additions will be needed to achieve the 2050 target of 300 GW installed.

Further analysis shows that for projects to be completed by 2030, Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) must be reached by 2027 to enter the required construction period of 2.5 to 3.5 years. As of 2025, approximately 54 GW of offshore wind capacity in the North Sea has either been installed or has reached FID. Under current market conditions, the maximum achievable installed capacity by 2030 is estimated at around 98 GW, with the most likely outcome being 60–80 GW. This implies a potential shortfall of roughly 40–60 GW relative to the 120 GW target for 2030.

Published in time for the North Sea Summit, the report titled "Measuring Wind of Change: A Call to Action," which points out that the gap between offshore wind ambitions and actual project delivery is continuing to widen. In recent years, the pace of deployment has stagnated and remains far below what is required. Delayed investment decisions, unsuccessful tenders, and excessively long project timelines have already put the 2030 and 2050 targets at risk.

However, by the time delays or failed tenders trigger a review, it is often already too late. Many early indicators either lack transparency or are not tracked in a systematic manner. To address this, BCG proposes a monitoring methodology based on Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), designed to help governments and industry stakeholders identify risks early, respond in a timely manner, and adjust policy and market frameworks accordingly.

10 KPIs Urge Action to Close Gaps

1. Auction success rate:

In 2025, the success rate of European seabed leasing auctions fell to 64%. Only 8.9 GW was successfully awarded, while 5.1 GW attracted no bidders. This highlights the growing importance of more robust auction design and a clearer, more predictable regulatory environment.

2. Project durations:

In 2025, the average duration of offshore wind projects—from initiation to commercial operation—reached 13 years and 4 months, a 7% increase compared to the 2021–2024 average of 12 years and 6 months. This was mainly driven by a 14% increase in project timelines in the UK. By contrast, average timelines in Germany and France shortened by 6% and 2%, respectively. These trends underscore the need for targeted policies, reliable grid schedules, and resilient market designs to shorten project timelines.

3. Progress of cooperation projects:

Among the hybrid offshore projects included in the draft Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), only 32% have entered a concrete planning stage, while the remaining 68% are still "under consideration." This reflects the relative novelty of connecting offshore wind farms to multiple national grids and enabling cross-border interconnection. Resolving the associated regulatory and coordination challenges is essential to accelerating development.

4. Power demand projection:

Current power demand projections show a 13% gap compared with the net-zero target scenario for 2040. If electricity demand falls short of the target scenario, the need for additional generation capacity will decline accordingly. This gap is mainly driven by insufficient electrification incentives, and closing it will require stronger electrification policies across transport, heating, and industry.

5. Secured offtake:

The limited power demand outlook is already reflected in insufficient commercial offtake. To date, only 62% of the North Sea's 120 GW offshore wind target for 2030 has secured offtake. Most projects rely on two-sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs), while corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) play a more limited role. Weak offtake coverage reflects constrained demand growth; advancing the remaining capacity will require stronger offtake frameworks, including access to CfDs, increased CPPA demand, and potentially tripartite contracts combining public support with private offtake to strengthen investor confidence.

6. Offshore interconnection:

By 2040, only 52% (11 GW) of the offshore interconnection capacity required for the North Sea hybrid corridor is currently included in the draft TYNDP, leaving a shortfall of 10 GW. Accelerating cross-border planning and implementation is therefore critical.

7. Supply chain capacity:

European manufacturing capacity for offshore wind has become a bottleneck. Assuming annual additions of 17 GW through 2030, current component production can cover only 48% of required capacity. The most severe shortages are in cables and power conversion equipment, where European capacity meets only 29% of demand. Without rapid scaling of local manufacturing and logistics, continued heavy reliance on imports will be unavoidable.

8. Financing framework:

In the absence of clear and predictable financing frameworks, investment risk and uncertainty will persist. Effective implementation of bankable financial frameworks is critical to mobilizing the private capital needed for large-scale offshore wind expansion.

9. Workforce capacity:

Most North Sea Summit member countries do not systematically collect offshore wind workforce data. Nevertheless, available evidence indicates significant skills shortages. In the UK, for example, only 53% of the required workforce is expected to be available by 2030. Offshore wind expansion is highly dependent on scarce technical talent, making workforce constraints a critical risk.

10. NIS2 implementation:

To date, only three countries—Belgium, Denmark, and Germany—have transposed the EU's NIS2 cybersecurity directive into national law. Until all countries complete national implementation, uneven security standards may become a structural bottleneck, exposing the interconnected offshore grid to cyber risks and increasing overall risks to secure and reliable power supply.