Experts Predict China Could Outperform 2035 Emissions Targets　Yet Doubts Persist over Short-Term Cuts

A strong majority of experts (69%) believe that China will significantly or partly overachieve its new climate targets for 2035 of reducing emissions by 7 to 10% compared to peak levels, illustrating that China can indeed achieve much higher reductions. That's according to the results of the latest expert survey conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS).

However, the survey also indicated that uncertainty about China's short-term energy transition and industrial decarbonisation has increased after the announcement of the conservative 2035 nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets as well as amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical volatility.

For the fourth annual edition of CREA's China's Climate Transition Outlook, CREA surveyed a pool of 68 experts representing diverse specialisations in the fields of climate and energy.

Although emissions have fallen since March 2024, experts have become less certain that China will peak in 2025, expecting a later peak in 2028. This also reflects the reluctance of the government to adopt a peaking year for its 2035 targets, which could leave more room for emissions to grow.

The development of clean energy and carbon goals is seen as an important hedge against geopolitical and economic headwinds. More than half of the experts (54%) believed that the future macroeconomic environment would further strengthen the importance of the dual-carbon goal. This indicates that carbon neutrality is widely seen as a key direction for promoting China's "high-quality development."

Whilst the majority of experts (99%) are confident that China will achieve its 2030 targets – implying no emissions growth over the coming five years – the country is currently far off track for its interim 2025 targets on carbon intensity and controlling coal consumption growth. At the same time, less than half of the experts surveyed believe that China's primary energy consumption will peak before 2030.

With regards to coal, experts showed varying opinions – close to half (44%) believe that China's coal consumption has peaked, whilst nearly the same amount (43%) hold a cautious attitude about this possibility. This uncertainty reflects the lack of clear policy direction amid a challenging geopolitical and economic situation.

In terms of industrial emissions, 80% of experts believe that China's steel sector emissions have already peaked or will do so before 2030 – despite a lack of progress in shifting to electric-arc steelmaking – with the same prediction for cement. However, improved progress in increasing steel recycling and the pace of green steelmaking development is needed to achieve significant emission reductions after the peak.

For the transportation sector, more than half (60%) believed that CO2 emissions from the transportation sector would peak before 2030.

"Against the backdrop of rapid clean energy development, the question is no longer whether China can peak emissions before 2030, but how to keep the plateau short and move quickly into structural decline. As China's transition enters deep water, further progress hinges on accelerating power sector reforms, advancing deep electrification, and strengthening financial coordination to translate "new quality productive forces" into measurable emission reductions. A pragmatic and sustained low-carbon transition is not a burden but the engine driving China's next wave of competitiveness," said Prof Xunpeng Shi at ISETS.

"Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainties, our survey demonstrates that experts are growing more confident that China's current and future domestic economic and geopolitical environment will strengthen the importance of the dual carbon goals. The country's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and the years ahead of 2030 will provide further opportunities for policymakers to refine and revisit the targets set based on real-world developments," said Belinda Schäpe, China Policy Analyst at CREA.

"In order to align with the goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid postponing bigger challenges to later decades, China needs to cut its CO2 emissions by 28 to 37% from current levels by 2035. Despite the conservative goals recently laid out in the country's new NDCs, China can still deliver a reduction of roughly 30% by extending clean energy trends and policies out to 2035. As President Xi himself noted, the country can only transform goals into results through systemic policies and concrete actions," said Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst and Co-founder at CREA.

"Despite China's clean energy boom, continued coal capacity expansion risks slowing the country's path to decarbonisation. To ensure meeting its carbon peaking deadline by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China must shift its priorities to building a more flexible power system, stopping new coal capacity, and laying out a clear plan for phasedown," said Qi Qin, China Analyst at CREA.

About CREA

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) is an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions, to air pollution. CREA was founded in December 2019 in Helsinki and has staff in several Asian and European countries. The organisation's work is funded through philanthropic grants and revenue from commissioned research. www.energyandcleanair.org

About the data

For the China Climate Transition expert survey 2025, we have invited outstanding experts from various fields to participate in a questionnaire survey on the progress and prospects of China's climate efforts. We used the same survey questionnaire as in 2024 with small changes and compared the data from this survey and the past four years. In light of changing circumstances, while maintaining the continuity of core issues, we added questions related to China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets and their impact.

The questionnaire mainly focused on assessing the peaking of China's total carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption, as well as the emission outlook for key sectors such as power, industry, buildings, and transportation. Of the 68 valid responses received, 53 came from domestic and 15 from international experts, with approximately half participating in previous surveys. Over 80% of the surveyed experts listed "energy" as their primary expertise: 37% specialise in energy and climate change economics, 37% in energy policy and management, and 9% in energy engineering.